Carlota Perez’ chapter in “Rethinking Capitalism” presents an analysis of change and growth in modern capitalism and the potential for a new phase of innovation developing green growth.
Perez uses an analysis similar to Kondratiev long waves and influenced by Schumpeter to break what is sometimes perceived to be continuous technological innovation under capitalism into a number of distinct phases, each following a recognisable pattern from invention to installation and deployment. Perez shows how each phase is punctuated by a predictable bubble followed by bust and recession. After the failure of this initial wave of investment comes a ‘golden age’ as the technology matures and is deployed across the economy before gradually stagnated. The successive waves start with the initial industrial revolution based on water power and canals, then the development of steam and iron. Steel and chemicals drive another surge in the late 19th century
Perez argues that orthodox economic modelling fails to account for this essentially dynamic and changing nature of capitalism. Instead standard models assume a system based on equilibrium, tending to return to the current historic trend and explaining deviation from this by looking for external influences. In other words they are fundamentally static, predicting that the status quo will continue forever. But we know – and Perez demonstrates – that capitalism has not remained static through it’s history and that the future, with the impacts of automation and climate change, will not be the same as the economic system we experience today.
I believe that what Perez is theorising is what in Marxist terms might be termed changes to the mode or production – albeit within the overall structure of capitalism. While property relations – and therefore the relations of production in Marxist terms – have remained broadly the same over the last 200 years or so, the technologies of production have been subject to profound development and transformation. Although the overarching description “capitalism” is still valid there can be no doubt that the world is a different place than it was in 1800 or 1900.
Perez is proposing that a theory of change is introduced into ‘modern’ economic thinking. Something that Marx was proposing 150 years ago, along with theorising the mechanisms by which it comes about and how it interacts with wider society. Meanwhile the economic models on which policy making is based on locked into the same static view of the world that Marx criticised so mercilessly.
Rethinking Capitalism Jacobs, M. and Mazzucato, M. (Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, 2016)